HOW ABCP
WORKS
A mathematical framework that ensures prediction markets don't create harmful incentives.
The Problem
The $187B sports betting industry faces an existential crisis. Current market structures allow bets that create perverse incentives—where participants profit from poor performance.
Example: A bet on "Player OVER 5 turnovers" means the player (or anyone with influence) could profit from intentionally making mistakes.
Core Principle
ABCP uses a simple mathematical test: betting profit direction must match win probability direction.
sign(∂B/∂M) = sign(∂P/∂M)B = betting payoff · M = metric · P = win probability
Classification
Positive Metrics
Points, assists, rebounds, touchdowns, strikeouts
OVER bets
UNDER bets
Negative Metrics
Turnovers, fouls, interceptions, errors, fumbles
OVER bets
UNDER bets
Binary Outcomes
Win/lose, championship, match winner
Aligned with competition
Process
Submit
Platform submits market parameters via REST API
Analyze
Rule-based engine classifies metric type and direction
Decide
APPROVED, PROHIBITED, or flagged for human review
Record
Decision permanently stored on NERO Chain