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CERTIFICATIONPLAYGROUND
See how ABCP classifies prediction markets in real-time. Click any example below to certify it.
sign(∂B/∂M) = sign(∂P/∂M)Approved Markets
LeBron James OVER 29.5 Points
Rewards athletic excellence — more points = more wins
NBAPointsOVER
Team to Win NFL Championship
Binary outcome aligned with competitive spirit
NFLTeam WinBINARY
Bitcoin OVER $100K
Price prediction with no moral hazard risk
CryptoPriceOVER
Oscar Best Picture Winner
Entertainment prediction with no integrity risk
EntertainmentAwardBINARY
Prohibited Markets
Player OVER 5 Turnovers
Incentivizes intentional mistakes — moral hazard
NBATurnoversOVER
Pandemic Death Toll OVER 1M
Profits from human suffering — categorically harmful
Public HealthDeath TollOVER
War Casualties Prediction
Commodifies violence and human loss
War/ConflictCasualtiesBINARY
Player OVER 3 Fouls Committed
Rewards unsportsmanlike conduct
SoccerFoulsOVER